Background: High ambient temperature is increasingly common due to climate change and is associated with risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common malignancy in children, the incidence is increasing, and in the United States it disproportionately affects Latino children. We aimed to investigate the potential association between high ambient temperature in pregnancy and risk of childhood ALL.
Methods: We used data from California birth records (1982-2015) and California Cancer Registry (1988-2015) to identify ALL cases diagnosed <14 years and 50 times as many controls matched by sex, race/ethnicity, and date of last menstrual period. Ambient temperatures were estimated on a 1-km grid. Association between ambient temperature and ALL was evaluated per gestational week, restricted to May-September, adjusting for confounders. Bayesian meta-regression was applied to identify critical exposure windows. For sensitivity analyses, we evaluated a 90-day pre-pregnancy period (assuming no direct effect before pregnancy) and constructed an alternatively matched dataset for exposure contrast by seasonality.
Findings: Our study included 6,258 ALL cases and 307,579 controls. The peak association between ambient temperature and risk of ALL was observed in gestational week 8, where a 5 °C increase was associated with an odds ratio of 1.09 (95% confidence interval 1.04-1.14) and 1.05 (95% confidence interval 1.00-1.11) among Latino and non-Latino White children, respectively. The sensitivity analyses supported this.
Interpretation: Our findings suggest an association between high ambient temperature in early pregnancy and risk of childhood ALL. Further replication and investigation of mechanistic pathways may inform mitigation strategies.