Trade scenarios compensating for halted wheat and maize exports from Russia and Ukraine increase carbon emissions without easing food insecurity

Nat Food. 2022 Oct;3(10):847-850. doi: 10.1038/s43016-022-00600-0. Epub 2022 Sep 19.

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has destabilized global agricultural markets, triggering food price increases. We present scenarios of reduced exports and production affecting both countries that increase maize and wheat prices by up to 4.6% and 7.2%, respectively. Production expansion in other regions can partially compensate for export declines but may increase carbon emissions and will exacerbate ongoing global food security challenges.