Incidence, prevalence, and trends in polycystic ovary syndrome diagnosis: a United States population-based study from 2006 to 2019

Background: Polycystic ovary syndrome is the most common endocrine disorder in women of reproductive age, yet US incidence estimates do not exist, and prevalence estimates vary widely.

Objective: A population-based US study estimated the incidence, prevalence, and trends of polycystic ovary syndrome by age, race and ethnicity, and diagnosing provider type.

Study design: A retrospective cohort study of patients enrolled in Kaiser Permanente Washington from 2006 to 2019 was conducted. All members identified as female, aged 16 to 40 years with at least 3 years of enrollment and at least 1 healthcare encounter during that time, were eligible for inclusion. Individuals were excluded if they had a history of oophorectomy or hysterectomy. Polycystic ovary syndrome cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases diagnosis codes (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, 256.4 or International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, E28.2). Individuals with a polycystic ovary syndrome diagnosis before study entry were excluded from incidence rate estimations. The incidence rates were adjusted by age using direct standardization to the 2010 US census data. Temporal trends in incidence were assessed using weighted linear regression (overall) and Poisson regression (by age, race and ethnicity, and provider type). Prevalent cases were defined as patients with a polycystic ovary syndrome diagnosis at any time before the end of 2019. Medical record review of 700 incident cases diagnosed in 2011-2019 was performed to validate incident cases identified by International Classification of Diseases codes using the Rotterdam criteria.

Results: Among 177,527 eligible patients who contributed 586,470 person-years, 2491 incident polycystic ovary syndrome cases were identified. The mean age at diagnosis was 26.9 years, and the mean body mass index was 31.6 kg/m². Overall incidence was 42.5 per 10,000 person-years; the rates were similar over time but increased in individuals aged 16 to 20 years from 31.0 to 51.9 per 10,000 person-years (P=.01) and decreased among those aged 26 to 30 years from 82.8 to 45.0 per 10,000 person-years (P=.02). A small decreasing temporal trend in incidence rates was only observed among non-Hispanic White individuals (P=.01). The incidence rates by diagnosing provider type varied little over time. Among the 58,241 patients who contributed person-time in 2019, 3036 (5.2%) had a polycystic ovary syndrome International Classification of Diseases diagnosis code; the prevalence was the highest among the Hawaiian and Pacific Islander group (7.6%) followed by Native American and Hispanic groups. Medical record review classified 60% as definite or probable incident, 14% as possible incident, and 17% as prevalent polycystic ovary syndrome. The overall positive predictive value of polycystic ovary syndrome International Classification of Diseases diagnosis code for identifying definite, probable, or possible incident polycystic ovary syndrome was 76% (95% confidence interval, 72%-79%).

Conclusion: Among a cohort of nonselected females in the United States, we observed stable rates of incident polycystic ovary syndrome diagnoses over time. The incidence of polycystic ovary syndrome was 4- to 5-fold greater than reported for the United Kingdom. The prevalence of polycystic ovary syndrome (5.2%) was almost double before the published US estimates (2.9%) based on the International Classification of Diseases codes. Race and ethnicity and provider type did not seem to have a major impact on temporal rates. Incident diagnoses increased over time in younger and decreased in older age groups, perhaps related to shifting practice patterns with greater awareness among practitioners of the impact of polycystic ovary syndrome on long-term health outcomes and improved prevention efforts. Moreover, increasing obesity rates may be a factor driving the earlier ages at diagnosis.