Changes in overwintering ground of small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) based on MaxEnt and GARP models: A case study of the southern Yellow Sea stock

Small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis), a commercially essential fish commonly caught in China and South Korea, is now facing a severe decline in resources. The recruitment and surplus of L. polyactis depend selecting a suitable marine environment for overwintering. However, the international overwintering migration habit of L. polyactis limits the investigation of its overwintering environment preferences and suitable grounds. In this study, based on the distribution data of L. polyactis in the southern Yellow Sea in winter from 2010 to 2019 and ocean remote sensing data such as sea bottom temperature (SBT), sea bottom salinity, chlorophyll-a concentration and water depth (Depth), we used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and the genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP) models to investigate the overwintering grounds of the southern Yellow Sea stock (SYS). The jackknife test was used to assess the importance of various environmental factors. For modelling the overwintering ground distribution of SYS, the area under the curve values of both models ​were higher than 0.9. The overwintering ground was at 32°10' N-33°48' N, 122°30' E-125°00' E. The direction of its distribution was consistent with the Yellow Sea Warm Current in the southern Yellow Sea during the winter. Compared with the suitable overwintering area during 2010-2014, the highly appropriate overwintering area for SYS to overwinter decreased significantly during 2015-2019, showing a trend of moving to the east and north, related to the increase in fishing pressure and strengthening of the Yellow Sea Warm Current in recent years. Depth was the most significant factor for SYS overwintering, followed by SBT. The overwintering ground was at a depth of 40-65 m during the two periods. Additionally, the suitability of overwintering grounds in the coastal waters of south-western South Korea has gradually increased. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating effective strategies to manage L. polyactis resources under the China-South Korea Fisheries Agreement.