Burden of ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2030: A systematic analysis and comparison with the global level

Introduction: Ovarian cancer (OC) is one of the major diseases threatening women's health and life. Estimating the burden trends and risk factors of OC can help develop effective management and prevention measures. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis concerning the burden and risk factors of OC in China. In this study, we aimed to assess and predict the burden trends of OC in China from 1990 to 2030, and make a comparison with the global level.

Methods: We extracted prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) and characterized OC burden in China by year and age. OC epidemiological characteristics were interpreted by conducting joinpoint and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. We also described risk factors, and predicted OC burden from 2019 to 2030 using Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results: In China, there were about 196,000 cases, 45,000 new cases and 29,000 deaths owing to OC in 2019. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, incidence and mortality have increased by 105.98%, 79.19%, and 58.93% respectively by 1990. In the next decade, OC burden in China will continue to rise with a higher rate than the global level. The OC burden in women under 20 years of age is slowing down, while the burden in women over 40 years of age is getting more severe, especially in postmenopausal and older women. High fasting plasma glucose is the major factor contributing the most to OC burden in China, and high body-mass index has surpassed occupational exposure to asbestos to be the second risk factor. OC burden from 2016 to 2019 in China has increased faster than ever before, indicates an urgent need to develop effective interventions.

Conclusion: The burden of OC in China has shown an obvious upward trend in the past 30 years, and the increase rate accelerated significantly in recent 5 years. In the next decade, OC burden in China will continue to rise with a higher rate than the global level. Popularizing screening methods, optimizing the quality of clinical diagnosis and treatment, and promoting healthy lifestyle are critical measures to improve this problem.