A radiomics nomogram for the ultrasound-based evaluation of central cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma

Purpose: To develop and validate a radiomics nomogram based on ultrasound (US) to predict central cervical lymph node (LN) metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

Methods: PTC patients with pathologically confirmed presence or absence of central cervical LN metastasis in our hospital between March 2021 and November 2021 were enrolled as the training cohort. Radiomics features were extracted from the preoperative US images, and a radiomics signature was constructed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen out the independent risk factors, and a radiomics nomogram was established. The performance of the model was verified in the independent test cohort of PTC patients who underwent thyroidectomy and cervical LN dissection in our hospital from December 2021 to March 2022.

Results: In the independent test cohort, the radiomics model based on long-axis cross-section and short-axis cross-section images outperformed the radiomics models based on either one of these sections (the area under the curve (AUC), 0.69 vs. 0.62 and 0.66). The radiomics signature consisted of 4 selected features. The US radiomics nomogram included the radiomics signature, age, gender, BRAF V600E mutation status, and extrathyroidal extension (ETE) status. In the independent test cohort, the AUC of the receiver operating curve(ROC) of this nomogram was 0.76, outperformingthe clinical model and the radiomics model (0.63 and 0.69, respectively), and also much better than preoperative US examination (AUC, 0.60). Decision curve analysis indicated that the radiomics nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusions: This study presents an efficient and useful US radiomics nomogram that can provide comprehensive information to assist clinicians in the individualized preoperative prediction of central cervical LN metastasis in PTC patients.