Nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with triple-negative apocrine breast cancer: Surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-based analysis

Purpose: Triple-negative apocrine carcinoma (TNAC) is a sort of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) that is rare and prognosis of these patients is unclear. The present study constructed an effective nomogram to assist in predicting TNAC patients overall survival (OS).

Methods: A total of 373 TNAC patients from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) got extracted from 2010 to 2016 and were divided into training (n = 261) and external validation (n = 112) groups (split ratio, 7:3) randomly. A Cox regression model was utilized to creating a nomogram according to the risk factors affecting prognosis. The predictive capability of the nomogram was estimated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed age, surgery, chemotherapy, stage, and first malignant primary as independent predictors of OS. A prediction model was constructed and virtualized using the nomogram. The time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) showed satisfactory discrimination of the nomogram. Good consistency was shown on the calibration curves in OS between actual observations and the nomogram prediction. What's more, DCA showed that the nomogram had incredible clinical utility. Through separating the patients into groups of low and high risk group that connects with the risk system that shows a huge difference between the low-risk and high risk OS (P < 0.001).

Conclusion: To predict the OS in TNAC patients, the nomogram utilizing the risk stratification system that is corresponding. These tools may help to evaluate patient prognosis and guide treatment decisions.