Mental and physical health among the French population before and during the first and second COVID-19 lockdowns: Latent class trajectory analyses using longitudinal data

Background: The French government issued national COVID-19-related confinement and stay-at-home orders depending on different epidemic levels in a bid to stem the coronavirus pandemic and its resurgence. The long-term impact of lockdown measures on the general population may vary. We aimed to identify and characterize self-reported mental and physical health trajectories in the French population from pre-lockdown to the first and second COVID-19 lockdowns and to identify factors associated with health status variation patterns.

Methods: We did a secondary analysis of the MAVIE cohort in France. Volunteers of this national cohort were recruited between November 2014 and December 2019, and information was collected at recruitment (pre-lockdown), April-May 2020 (the first lockdown), and October-December 2020 (the second lockdown). Latent class mixed models were built to identify distinct anxiety (as measured by GAD-7) and depressive (as measured by PHQ-9) symptoms, and self-perceived mental and physical health trajectories. Factors associated with status variation were identified by logistic or multinomial regression.

Results: A total of 613 participants with data in all three data collection waves were included. Respondents spent almost half as much time on traditional media, websites and social media during the second lockdown as during the first. Mean anxiety scores were 1.96, 2.37 and 2.82 at pre-lockdown, and the first and second lockdowns, respectively. Mean depressive scores were 3.12, 3.36 and 3.95, respectively. Latent class mixed models fitted two and three distinct trajectory classes respectively for anxiety symptoms ('no pre-pandemic anxiety, slightly increase', 58.9%; 'consistently fair', 41.1%) and depressive symptoms ('consistently very low', 34.6%; 'consistently low', 56.1%; 'increasing and clinically significant at the second lockdown', 9.3%), and four classes for self-perceived mental and physical health. Females were more likely to belong to trajectories of the most vulnerable one as regard to the symptoms of anxiety and depression, and self-perceived mental and physical health. The younger participants were also more vulnerable to anxiety symptoms and those with a clinical diagnosis or a positive COVID-19 test for the participant or relatives were more likely to belong to vulnerable trajectories for depressive symptoms and self-perceived mental health.

Conclusion: A continuing increase in the mean scores of anxiety and depression symptoms was observed throughout the two lockdown periods in France. Further analyses revealed distinct patterns with a small fraction of volunteers experiencing worsening mental and physical health symptoms. This vulnerable small part of the population requires targeted support.