Epidemiological changes, demographic drivers, and global years of life lost from suicide over the period 1990-2019

Objective: To quantify the contributions of epidemiological changes (age- and gender-specific suicide rates) and demographic forces (population growth and aging) to global changes in years of life lost (YLLs) from suicide over the last 30 years.

Method: A decomposition analysis was used to assess the impacts of population growth, population aging, and suicide prevalence on global changes in YLLs from suicide between 1990 and 2019.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, global YLLs from suicide reduced by 2,073,714 years (5.9%), from 35,246,316 years to 33,172,602 years. This was mainly due to the decline in age-specific suicide rates, which reduced the overall YLLs from suicide by 20,185,691 years (973.4%). However, this decline was offset by the impacts of population growth and population aging, which increased global YLLs from suicide by 14,949,110 years (-720.9%) and 3,442,074 years (-166.0%), respectively. The combined effects of epidemiological and demographic drivers were also reflected in different trends in YLLs from suicide across genders and World Bank income level regions, with particularly notable increases in low- income and lower-middle income countries and the aging population.

Conclusions: With the significant effects of epidemiological and demographic drivers, global and regional YLLs from suicide may be expected to change greatly in the future. Efforts to reduce the burden of suicide require appropriate allocation of resources for suicide-prevention strategies and further consideration of demographic factors.