Background: Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) contributes millions of emergency department (ED) visits and it is associated with high in-hospital mortality. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a multiparametric score for critically-ill ADHF patients.
Methods: In this single-center, retrospective study, a total of 1268 ADHF patients in China were enrolled and divided into derivation (n = 1014) and validation (n = 254) cohorts. The primary endpoint was any in-hospital death, cardiac arrest or utilization of mechanical support devices. Logistic regression model was preformed to identify risk factors and build the new scoring system. The assigning point of each parameter was determined according to its β coefficient. The discrimination was validated internally using C statistic and calibration was evaluated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.
Results: We constructed a predictive score based on six significant risk factors [systolic blood pressure (SBP), white blood cell (WBC) count, hematocrit (HCT), total bilirubin (TBIL), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and NT-proBNP]. This new model was computed as (1 × SBP < 90 mmHg) + (2 × WBC > 9.2 × 109/L) + (1 × HCT ≤ 0.407) + (2 × TBIL > 34.2 μmol/L) + (2 × eGFR < 15 ml/min/1.73 m2) + (1 × NTproBNP ≥ 10728.9 ng/ml). The C statistic for the new score was 0.758 (95% CI 0.667-0.838) higher than APACHE II, AHEAD and ADHERE score. It also demonstrated good calibration for detecting high-risk patients in the validation cohort (χ2 = 6.681, p = 0.463).
Conclusions: The new score including SBP, WBC, HCT, TBIL, eGFR and NT-proBNP might be used to predict short-term prognosis of Chinese critically-ill ADHF patients.
Keywords: Acute decompensated heart failure; Prognosis; Scoring system.