Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown

Sci Rep. 2021 Mar 19;11(1):6452. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-85808-z.

Abstract

Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours. The results found in this work are not only relevant and specific for the Covid-19 epidemic but are more general and can be applied to other epidemics.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control
  • Communicable Disease Control
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Time Factors