Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

I F F Dos Santos; G M A Almeida; F A B F de Moura

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2021.125773

Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

Physica A. 2021 May 1:569:125773. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125773. Epub 2021 Jan 19.

Authors

I F F Dos Santos¹, G M A Almeida¹, F A B F de Moura¹

Affiliation

¹ Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, 57072-970 Maceió - AL, Brazil.

Abstract

We study the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020. Calculations are done via an adaptive susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model featuring dynamical recuperation and propagation rates. We are able reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time with less than 5% error and also provide with short- and long-term predictions. The model can also be used to account for the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great accuracy.

Keywords: Epidemic dynamics; SARS-CoV-2; SIR.