COVID-19 Pandemic Planning: Simulation Models to Predict Biochemistry Test Capacity for Patient Surges

J Appl Lab Med. 2021 Mar 1;6(2):451-462. doi: 10.1093/jalm/jfaa231.

Abstract

Background: Patient surges beyond hospital capacity during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic emphasized a need for clinical laboratories to prepare test processes to support future patient care. The objective of this study was to determine if current instrumentation in local hospital laboratories can accommodate the anticipated workload from COVID-19 infected patients in hospitals and a proposed field hospital in addition to testing for non-infected patients.

Methods: Simulation models predicted instrument throughput and turn-around-time for chemistry, ion-selective-electrode, and immunoassay tests using vendor-developed software with different workload scenarios. The expanded workload included tests from anticipated COVID patients in 2 local hospitals and a proposed field hospital with a COVID-specific test menu in addition to the pre-pandemic workload.

Results: Instrumentation throughput and turn-around time at each site was predicted. With additional COVID-patient beds in each hospital, the maximum throughput was approached with no impact on turnaround time. Addition of the field hospital workload led to significantly increased test turnaround times at each site.

Conclusions: Simulation models depicted the analytic capacity and turn-around times for laboratory tests at each site and identified the laboratory best suited for field hospital laboratory support during the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID19; pandemic; simulation model; surge capacity planning.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / diagnosis*
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • COVID-19 Testing / instrumentation*
  • COVID-19 Testing / statistics & numerical data
  • COVID-19 Testing / trends
  • Clinical Laboratory Services / organization & administration
  • Clinical Laboratory Services / statistics & numerical data
  • Computer Simulation
  • Datasets as Topic
  • Forecasting / methods
  • Health Care Rationing / methods*
  • Health Care Rationing / statistics & numerical data
  • Health Planning Technical Assistance
  • Hospital Bed Capacity / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Intensive Care Units / organization & administration
  • Intensive Care Units / statistics & numerical data
  • Intensive Care Units / trends
  • Laboratories, Hospital / organization & administration*
  • Laboratories, Hospital / supply & distribution
  • Laboratories, Hospital / trends
  • Models, Statistical
  • Pandemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Reagent Kits, Diagnostic / supply & distribution
  • Reagent Kits, Diagnostic / trends
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Saskatchewan / epidemiology
  • Software
  • Time Factors
  • Workload / statistics & numerical data

Substances

  • Reagent Kits, Diagnostic