Restricted mean survival time as a summary measure of time-to-event outcome

Pharm Stat. 2020 Jul;19(4):436-453. doi: 10.1002/pst.2004. Epub 2020 Feb 18.

Abstract

Many clinical research studies evaluate a time-to-event outcome, illustrate survival functions, and conventionally report estimated hazard ratios to express the magnitude of the treatment effect when comparing between groups. However, it may not be straightforward to interpret the hazard ratio clinically and statistically when the proportional hazards assumption is invalid. In some recent papers published in clinical journals, the use of restricted mean survival time (RMST) or τ-year mean survival time is discussed as one of the alternative summary measures for the time-to-event outcome. The RMST is defined as the expected value of time to event limited to a specific time point corresponding to the area under the survival curve up to the specific time point. This article summarizes the necessary information to conduct statistical analysis using the RMST, including the definition and statistical properties of the RMST, adjusted analysis methods, sample size calculation, information fraction for the RMST difference, and clinical and statistical meaning and interpretation. Additionally, we discuss how to set the specific time point to define the RMST from two main points of view. We also provide developed SAS codes to determine the sample size required to detect an expected RMST difference with appropriate power and reconstruct individual survival data to estimate an RMST reference value from a reported survival curve.

Keywords: proportional hazards assumption; restricted mean survival time; summary measure; survival analysis; time-to-event data.

MeSH terms

  • Humans
  • Lung Neoplasms / mortality
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Sample Size
  • Survival Analysis*
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome