Introduction and hypothesis: Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery using a mesh has a complication rate of 26%, and an estimated 10% of those operated on do not consider it brings improvement. The objective of this study was to identify preoperative predictors of improvement after POP repair with mesh to develop a predictive score.
Methods: This is a secondary analysis of the randomized multicenter trial PROSPERE, which compared morbidity after prolapse repair with mesh according to the vaginal or laparoscopic approach. Improved women [PGI-I score at 1-year follow-up = 1 (much better) or 2 (better)] were compared with unimproved women. Two hundred fifty-five women were included to derive the prediction score based on multiple logistic regression. An internal validation by bootstrapping estimated the unbiased performance of the model.
Results: Criteria independently related to improvement were: (1) cystocele stage > II [OR: 2.93 95% CI (1.22-7.04), p = 0.015]; (2) preoperative expectation related to bulge symptom improvement [OR: 2.57 95% CI (1.07-6.04), p = 0.031] and (3) absence of chronic pelvic pain [OR: 4.55 95% CI (1.77-11.46), p = 0.001]. A score (scored from 0 to 11) was constructed from the aOR of the predictive model: the ROC-AUC of the score was 0.75, and a score ≥ 9 predicted a 97% chance of improvement (95% CI 92-99), with a specificity of 85% (95% CI 68-94). The ROC-AUC corrected for optimism by the bootstrap procedure was 0.70.
Conclusions: This score could be used by surgeons in preoperative counseling of women.
Keywords: Clinical prediction rule; Counseling; Cystocele; Genital prolapse; Postoperative improvement; Surgery.