Synchrony is more than its top-down and climatic parts: interacting Moran effects on phytoplankton in British seas

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Mar 28;15(3):e1006744. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006744. eCollection 2019 Mar.

Abstract

Large-scale spatial synchrony is ubiquitous in ecology. We examined 56 years of data representing chlorophyll density in 26 areas in British seas monitored by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We used wavelet methods to disaggregate synchronous fluctuations by timescale and determine that drivers of synchrony include both biotic and abiotic variables. We tested these drivers for statistical significance by comparison with spatially synchronous surrogate data. Identification of causes of synchrony is distinct from, and goes beyond, determining drivers of local population dynamics. We generated timescale-specific models, accounting for 61% of long-timescale (> 4yrs) synchrony in a chlorophyll density index, but only 3% of observed short-timescale (< 4yrs) synchrony. Thus synchrony and its causes are timescale-specific. The dominant source of long-timescale chlorophyll synchrony was closely related to sea surface temperature, through a climatic Moran effect, though likely via complex oceanographic mechanisms. The top-down action of Calanus finmarchicus predation enhances this environmental synchronising mechanism and interacts with it non-additively to produce more long-timescale synchrony than top-down and climatic drivers would produce independently. Our principal result is therefore a demonstration of interaction effects between Moran drivers of synchrony, a new mechanism for synchrony that may influence many ecosystems at large spatial scales.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Chlorophyll / metabolism
  • Climate*
  • Ecosystem
  • Oceans and Seas*
  • Phytoplankton / metabolism*

Substances

  • Chlorophyll

Associated data

  • Dryad/10.5061/dryad.rq3jc84

Grants and funding

LWS and DCR were partially supported by UK Natural Environment Research Council grants NE/H020705/1, NE/I010963/1, and NE/I011889/1 (https://nerc.ukri.org/), the James S McDonnell Foundation (https://www.jsmf.org/), US National Science Foundation grants 1442595 and 1714195 (https://www.nsf.gov/), and funding from the University of Kansas (https://www.ku.edu/). Travel was facilitated by US National Science Foundation grant 1225529 (https://www.nsf.gov/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.