As the Medicare program struggles to control expenditures, there is increased focus on opportunities to manage patient populations more efficiently and at a lower cost. A major source of expense for the Medicare program is beneficiaries at end of life. Estimates of the percentage of Medicare costs that arise from patients in the last year of life differ, ranging from 13% to 25%, depending on methods and assumptions. We analyze the most recently available Medicare Limited Data Set to update prior studies of end-of-life costs and examine different methods of performing this calculation. Based upon these findings, we conclude that higher estimates that take into account the spending over the 12 months leading up to death more accurately reflect the full cost of a patient's last year of life. Comparing current year costs of decedents with Medicare's current year costs understates the full budgetary impact of end-of-life patients. Because risk-taking entities such as Medicare Advantage plans and Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) need to reduce costs while improving the quality of care, they should initiate programs to better manage the care of patients with serious or advanced illness. We also calculate costs for beneficiaries dying in different settings and conclude that more effective use of palliative care and hospice benefits offers a lower cost, higher quality alternative for patients at end of life.
Keywords: end-of-life costs; hospice; inpatient; medicare; palliative care; population management.