Analysis on urban densification dynamics and future modes in southeastern Wisconsin, USA

PLoS One. 2019 Mar 6;14(3):e0211964. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211964. eCollection 2019.

Abstract

Urban change (urbanization) has dominated land change science for several decades. However, few studies have focused on what many scholars call the urban densification process (i.e., urban intensity expansion) despite its importance to both planning and subsequent impacts to the environment and local economies. This paper documents past urban densification patterns and uses this information to predict future densification trends in southeastern Wisconsin (SEWI) by using a rich dataset from the United States and by adapting the well-known Land Transformation Model (LTM) for this purpose. Urban densification is a significant and progressive process that often accompanies urbanization more generally. The increasing proportion of lower density areas, rather than higher density areas, was the main characteristic of the urban densification in SEWI from 2001 to 2011. We believe that improving urban land use efficiency to maintain rational densification are effective means toward a sustainable urban landscape. Multiple goodness-of-fit metrics demonstrated that the reconfigured LTM performed relatively well to simulate urban densification patterns in 2006 and 2011, enabling us to forecast densification to 2016 and 2021. The predicted future urban densification patterns are likely to be characterized by higher densities continue to increase at the expense of lower densities. We argue that detailed categories of urban density and specific relevant predictor variables are indispensable for densification prediction. Our study provides researchers working in land change science with important insights into urban densification process modeling. The outcome of this model can help planners to identify the current trajectory of urban development, enabling them to take informed action to promote planning objectives, which could benefit sustainable urbanization definitely.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • City Planning / statistics & numerical data*
  • Conservation of Natural Resources / statistics & numerical data*
  • Environmental Monitoring / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Urbanization / trends*
  • Wisconsin

Grants and funding

This work was supported by Jilin Province Science and Technology Development Plan Project [No.20180418111FG] to LW; Jilin Provincial Department of Education "13th Five-Year" Science and Technology Project [No. JJKH20180163KJ] to LW; Author KL was supported by the Major Science and Technology Program for Water Pollution Control and Treatment [No. 2012ZX07408001] and the Jilin Science Foundation for Excellent Young Scholars [No.20180520169JH]. This work was part of the “Smart-CA” project funded by the National Research Fund Luxembourg (FNR-Luxembourg) and LISER research institute-Luxembourg to HO.