Both small and large artery disease might precede the development of hypertension. However, no prospective trial has yet determined the role of small and large artery disease on the rate of new-onset hypertension in a normotensive general population. This study investigated associations between both arterial stiffness and small artery retinopathy and the development of hypertension in adults from Japan. Normotensive individuals who underwent a baseline health checkup from 2005 to 2015 and at least 1 annual follow-up were eligible. The cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) was measured, and retinal fundus photography was performed at baseline. Follow-up visits included measurement of clinic blood pressure. The primary end point was new-onset hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or initiation of antihypertensive medication with self-reported hypertension). The analysis included 34 649 subjects (mean age, 44.2 years; 46.4% male). Mean follow-up duration was 3.18±2.50 years. The cumulative incidence of new-onset hypertension during the 10-year follow-up period was 40% of patients overall, with rates increasing in parallel with baseline CAVI (quartile [Q]1, 23%; Q2, 33%; Q3, 42%; Q4, 58%; P<0.001), and as the severity of retinopathy increased ( P<0.001). CAVI showed good discriminative ability for detecting new-onset hypertension. In multivariate analysis, both CAVI and small artery retinopathy were independent predictors of hypertension development. There was no interaction between CAVI and small artery retinopathy with respect to incident hypertension. In conclusion, we showed that both large and small artery disease predict future hypertension independently of each other and confounding risk factors in a general normotensive population.
Keywords: arteriosclerosis; blood pressure; hypertension; hypertensive retinopathy; risk factor; vascular stiffness.