Multistate modelling to estimate excess length of stay and risk of death associated with organ/space infection after elective colorectal surgery

J Hosp Infect. 2018 Dec;100(4):400-405. doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2018.08.010. Epub 2018 Aug 17.

Abstract

Background: Accounting for time-dependency and competing events are strongly recommended to estimate excess length of stay (LOS) and risk of death associated with healthcare-associated infections.

Aim: To assess the effect of organ/space (OS) surgical site infection (SSI) on excess LOS and in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery (ECS).

Methods: A multicentre prospective adult cohort undergoing ECS, January 2012 to December 2014, at 10 Spanish hospitals was used. SSI was considered the time-varying exposure and defined as incisional (superficial and deep) or OS. Discharge alive and death were the study endpoints. The mean excess LOS was estimated using a multistate model which provided a weighted average based on the states patients passed through. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to assess the effect of OS-SSI on risk of discharge alive or in-hospital mortality.

Findings: Of 2778 patients, 343 (12.3%) developed SSI: 194 (7%) OS-SSI and 149 (5.3%) incisional SSI. Compared to incisional SSI or no infection, OS-SSI prolonged LOS by 4.2 days (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.1-4.3) and 9 days (8.9-9.1), respectively, reduced the risk of discharge alive (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 0.36 (95% CI: 0.28-0.47) and aHR: 0.17 (0.14-0.21), respectively), and increased the risk of in-hospital mortality (aHR: 8.02 (1.03-62.9) and aHR: 10.7 (3.7-30.9), respectively).

Conclusion: OS-SSI substantially extended LOS and increased risk of death in patients undergoing ECS. These results reinforce OS-SSI as the SSI with the highest health burden in ECS.

Keywords: Elective colorectal surgery; Length of stay; Mortality; Multistate modelling; Organ-space infection; Surgical site infection.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Colorectal Surgery / adverse effects*
  • Female
  • Hospitals
  • Humans
  • Length of Stay*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Spain / epidemiology
  • Surgical Wound Infection / epidemiology*
  • Surgical Wound Infection / mortality*
  • Survival Analysis