Temperature-driven population abundance model for Culex pipiens and Culex restuans (Diptera: Culicidae)

Don Yu; Neal Madras; Huaiping Zhu

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.01.024

Temperature-driven population abundance model for Culex pipiens and Culex restuans (Diptera: Culicidae)

J Theor Biol. 2018 Apr 14:443:28-38. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.01.024. Epub 2018 Feb 3.

Authors

Don Yu¹, Neal Madras¹, Huaiping Zhu²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
² Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada. Electronic address: huaiping@mathstat.yorku.ca.

PMID: 29366824
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.01.024

Abstract

We develop a temperature-driven abundance model for West Nile virus (WNV) vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans. Temperature-dependent response functions for mosquito development, mortality, and diapause were formulated based on results from available laboratory and field studies. Numerical results compared to observed mosquito trap counts from 2004-2016 demonstrate the ability of our model to predict the observed trend of the mosquito population over a single season in the Peel Region, Ontario. The model has potential to be used as a real-time mosquito abundance forecasting tool with applications in mosquito control programs.

Keywords: Abundance; Culex; Mosquito; Population; Simulations; Surveillance; Temperature; Trap data; West Nile virus.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Animals
Culex* / physiology
Culex* / virology
Humans
Models, Biological*
Mosquito Control*
Mosquito Vectors* / physiology
Mosquito Vectors* / virology
Ontario
Seasons
West Nile Fever* / epidemiology
West Nile Fever* / transmission
West Nile virus*

Grants and funding

CIHR/Canada