Background: Adult BMI trajectories outperform single BMI measurements as predictors of cardiovascular mortality; however, it is unknown whether this also holds in childhood. We aimed to identify BMI trajectory categories from birth to adolescence, and examine their associations with adolescent cardiovascular function and structure.
Methods: Adolescents from a community-based prospective birth cohort completed 11-16 BMI measurements between birth and adolescence. BMI trajectory categories were identified using latent class analysis. Associations between trajectories and cardiovascular outcomes (14 years) were assessed using adjusted linear regression models (n = 187). Cardiovascular outcomes included systolic/diastolic blood pressure, augmentation index, pulse wave velocity, carotid intima-media thickness, and retinal arteriole-to-venule ratio. Regression models were adjusted for child age, gender, height, socioeconomic status, and puberty status at outcome.
Results: Three BMI trajectories emerged that diverged sharply by the age of 1 year. BMI increments were thereafter roughly parallel for those in the low normal (39%) and high normal (51%) groups, but steeper in the consistently overweight (10%) group, which was notable for lack of an obvious adiposity rebound. Cardiovascular function and structure were similar across the three trajectory groups. The only exception was augmentation index, which was 7.8% (95% CI: 2.6 to 13.0) higher in the consistently overweight individuals than the low normal individuals.
Conclusions: We found little evidence that those with consistently higher BMI from infancy experienced poorer cardiovascular function or structure by the age of 14 years. Nonetheless, childhood BMI trajectories track strongly, meaning resolution of risky BMI, while essential to decrease later cardiovascular risk, is unlikely without intervention.
Keywords: BMI, blood pressure; carotid intima-media thickness; childhood; retinal microvascular structure; vascular stiffness.