Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions

PLoS One. 2016 Apr 7;11(4):e0153237. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0153237. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Agriculture*
  • Animal Migration
  • Animals
  • Biodiversity
  • Climate Change*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Ecosystem*
  • Geography
  • Insect Control*
  • Introduced Species / statistics & numerical data*
  • Kenya
  • Lepidoptera*
  • Models, Statistical
  • Risk Assessment
  • Species Specificity

Grants and funding

This study was funded by the Volkswagen Foundation (project VW-89362) who provided financial support for the collaboration of the research team and the Center for Development Research (ZEF), Department of Ecology and Natural Resources Management, at the University of Bonn that supported the study through salaries and research infrastructure.