Lattice energy minimization studies on four ordered crystal structures of ice and 22 hydrates of approximately rigid organic molecules (along with 11 corresponding anhydrate structures) were used to establish a model potential scheme, based on the use of a distributed multipole electrostatic model, that can reasonably reproduce the crystal structures. Transferring the empirical repulsion-dispersion potentials for organic oxygen and polar hydrogen atoms to water appears more successful for modeling ice phases than using common water potentials derived from liquid properties. Lattice energy differences are reasonable but quite sensitive to the exact conformation of water and the organic molecule used in the rigid molecule modeling. This potential scheme was used to test a new approach of predicting the crystal structure of 5-azauracil monohydrate (an isolated site hydrate) based on seeking dense crystal packings of 66 5-azauracil···water hydrogen-bonded clusters, derived from an analysis of hydrate hydrogen bond geometries involving the carbonyl- and aza-group acceptors in the Cambridge Structural Database. The known structure was found within 5 kJ mol(-1) of the global minimum in static lattice energy and as the third most stable structure, within 1 kJ mol(-1), when thermal effects at ambient temperature were considered. Thus, although the computational prediction of whether an organic molecule will crystallize in a hydrated form poses many challenges, the prediction of plausible structures for hydrogen-bonded monohydrates is now possible.