Application of a hybrid method combining grey model and back propagation artificial neural networks to forecast hepatitis B in china

Comput Math Methods Med. 2015:2015:328273. doi: 10.1155/2015/328273. Epub 2015 Feb 26.

Abstract

Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease provides potentially valuable insights in its own right. It is critical for early prevention and may contribute to health services management and syndrome surveillance. This study investigates the use of a hybrid algorithm combining grey model (GM) and back propagation artificial neural networks (BP-ANN) to forecast hepatitis B in China based on the yearly numbers of hepatitis B and to evaluate the method's feasibility. The results showed that the proposal method has advantages over GM (1, 1) and GM (2, 1) in all the evaluation indexes.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • China
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods
  • Hepatitis B / diagnosis*
  • Hepatitis B / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Infectious Disease Medicine
  • Medical Informatics
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Neural Networks, Computer*
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Software