Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1989 Sep 5;325(1226):123-34.

Predictions of the AIDS epidemic in the U.K.: the use of the back projection method.

Source

MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, U.K.

Abstract

Back projection methods are used to predict the yearly number of new AIDS diagnoses and the number of new HIV infections, to the end of 1992. The AIDS, but not the HIV, predictions are insensitive to the choice of incubation period distribution. A wide range of predictions is consistent with the AIDS diagnoses in years up to 1987, but limited ancillary information on the relative rates of new HIV infection in 1984 to 1987 can be used to narrow this range. The range of prediction based on AIDS reports to the end of 1988 is lower and narrower than the range based on reports to the end of 1987. The number of new AIDS cases in 1992 appears likely to fall in the range 1000-3000.

PMID:: 2572011; [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

MeSH Terms

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Supplemental Content

Related citations

Estimation of the incidence of HIV infection. [Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1989]
Estimation of the incidence of HIV infection.
Isham V. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1989 Sep 5; 325(1226):113-21.
Human immunodeficiency virus infection in the United Kingdom: quarterly report I. The epidemic to 30 September 1987. [J Infect. 1988]
Human immunodeficiency virus infection in the United Kingdom: quarterly report I. The epidemic to 30 September 1987.
. J Infect. 1988 May; 16(3):291-302.
Human immunodeficiency virus infection in the United Kingdom: quarterly report 2. The epidemic to 31 December 1987, with special reference to children. [J Infect. 1988]
Human immunodeficiency virus infection in the United Kingdom: quarterly report 2. The epidemic to 31 December 1987, with special reference to children.
. J Infect. 1988 Jul; 17(1):71-82.
Review The influence of different sexual-contact patterns between age classes on the predicted demographic impact of AIDS in developing countries. [Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1989]
Review The influence of different sexual-contact patterns between age classes on the predicted demographic impact of AIDS in developing countries.
Anderson RM, Ng TW, Boily MC, May RM. Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1989; 569:240-74.
Review AIDS: the statistical basis for public health. [Stat Methods Med Res. 1993]
Review AIDS: the statistical basis for public health.
De Angelis D, Day NE, Gore SM, Gilks WR, McGee MA. Stat Methods Med Res. 1993; 2(1):75-91.

See reviews... See all...

Cited by 1 PubMed Central article

Sexual behavior and exposure to HIV infection: estimates from a general-population risk index. [Am J Public Health. 1993]
Sexual behavior and exposure to HIV infection: estimates from a general-population risk index.
Campostrini S, McQueen DV. Am J Public Health. 1993 Aug; 83(8):1139-43.

Related information

Related Citations
Calculated set of PubMed citations closely related to the selected article(s) retrieved using a word weight algorithm. Related articles are displayed in ranked order from most to least relevant, with the “linked from” citation displayed first.
Cited in PMC
Full-text articles in the PubMed Central Database that cite the current articles.

Recent activity

Clear Turn Off Turn On

Predictions of the AIDS epidemic in the U.K.: the use of the back projection met...
Predictions of the AIDS epidemic in the U.K.: the use of the back projection method.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1989 Sep 5 ;325(1226):123-34.

PubMed
Prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux in end-stage lung disease candidates for l...
Prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux in end-stage lung disease candidates for lung transplant.
Ann Thorac Surg. 2005 Oct ;80(4):1254-60.

PubMed
Intranasal insulin improves cognition and modulates beta-amyloid in early AD.
Intranasal insulin improves cognition and modulates beta-amyloid in early AD.
Neurology. 2008 Feb 5 ;70(6):440-8. Epub 2007 Oct 17 .

PubMed
Functional analysis of the subunits of the chromatin assembly factor RSF.
Functional analysis of the subunits of the chromatin assembly factor RSF.
Mol Cell Biol. 2003 Oct ;23(19):6759-68.

PubMed
Homeobox-clock protein interaction in zebrafish. A shared mechanism for pineal-s...
Homeobox-clock protein interaction in zebrafish. A shared mechanism for pineal-specific and circadian gene expression.
J Biol Chem. 2005 Mar 25 ;280(12):11544-51. Epub 2005 Jan 18 .

PubMed

Your browsing activity is empty.

Activity recording is turned off.

Turn recording back on

PubMed

Display Settings:

Send to:

Predictions of the AIDS epidemic in the U.K.: the use of the back projection method.

Source

Abstract

MeSH Terms

MeSH Terms

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Supplemental Content

Related citations

Cited by 1 PubMed Central article

Related information

Recent activity

Simple NCBI Directory

Getting Started

Resources

Popular

Featured

NCBI Information