Format

Send to:

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
Appl Geogr. 2014 Sep 1;53:202-212.

Changing crops in response to climate: virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation.

Author information

  • 1Department of Geographical & Sustainability Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA.
  • 2Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA ; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
  • 3Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA ; Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
  • 4Institute for Social and Population Research, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
  • 5Department of Geography, Central Michigan University, Mount Pleasant, MI, USA.
  • 6Davis Library, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
  • 7Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
  • 8Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA ; Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • 9Center for Natural Resources Assessment and Decision Support, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA USA.

Abstract

The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography. The socioeconomic dynamics are endogenous in the system, and climate changes were added as exogenous drivers. Villages changed their agricultural effort in many different ways. Most villages reduced the amount of land under cultivation, primarily with reduction in jasmine rice, but others did not. The variation in responses to climate change indicates potential sensitivity to initial conditions and path dependence for this type of system. The differences between our virtual villages and the real villages of the region indicate effects of bounded rationality and limits on model applications.

KEYWORDS:

Thailand; agent based model; bounded rationality; climate change; endogenous dynamics; land use change

PMID:
25061240
[PubMed]
PMCID:
PMC4105306
[Available on 2015-09-01]
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Loading ...
    Write to the Help Desk