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Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014 Apr;90(4):697-704. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0198. Epub 2014 Mar 3.

Meteorological variables and bacillary dysentery cases in Changsha City, China.

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  • 1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; School of Public Health, China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; School of Population Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Taishan Medical College, Taian City, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing City, People's Republic of China; National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing City, People's Republic of China.

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the association between meteorological-related risk factors and bacillary dysentery in a subtropical inland Chinese area: Changsha City. The cross-correlation analysis and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model were used to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery. Monthly mean temperature, mean relative humidity, mean air pressure, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature were significantly correlated with the number of bacillary dysentery cases with a 1-month lagged effect. The ARIMAX models suggested that a 1°C rise in mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature might lead to 14.8%, 12.9%, and 15.5% increases in the incidence of bacillary dysentery disease, respectively. Temperature could be used as a forecast factor for the increase of bacillary dysentery in Changsha. More public health actions should be taken to prevent the increase of bacillary dysentery disease with consideration of local climate conditions, especially temperature.

PMID:
24591435
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PMCID:
PMC3973515
[Available on 2015/4/2]
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