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J Theor Biol. 2014 Feb 21;343:120-6. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.11.024. Epub 2013 Dec 7.

Epidemic dynamics of a vector-borne disease on a villages-and-city star network with commuters.

Author information

  • 1Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems (Sokendai-Hayama), The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (Sokendai), Hayama, Kanagawa 240-0193, Japan. Electronic address: emmanuel_abraham@soken.ac.jp.
  • 2Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems (Sokendai-Hayama), The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (Sokendai), Hayama, Kanagawa 240-0193, Japan.
  • 3Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems (Sokendai-Hayama), The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (Sokendai), Hayama, Kanagawa 240-0193, Japan; Evolution and Ecology Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.

Abstract

We develop a star-network of connections between a central city and peripheral villages and analyze the epidemic dynamics of a vector-borne disease as influenced by daily commuters. We obtain an analytical solution for the global basic reproductive number R0 and investigate its dependence on key parameters for disease control. We find that in a star-network topology the central hub is not always the best place to focus disease intervention strategies. Disease control decisions are sensitive to the number of commuters from villages to the city as well as the relative densities of mosquitoes between villages and city. With more commuters it becomes important to focus on the surrounding villages. Commuting to the city paradoxically reduces the disease burden even when the bulk of infections are in the city because of the resulting diluting effects of transmissions with more commuters. This effect decreases with heterogeneity in host and vector population sizes in the villages due to the formation of peripheral epicenters of infection. We suggest that to ensure effective control of vector-borne diseases in star networks of villages and cities it is also important to focus on the commuters and where they come from.

© 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

KEYWORDS:

Basic reproductive number; Epidemiology; Frequency-dependent transmission; Star network; Vector-borne disease

PMID:
24321227
[PubMed - in process]
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