Display Settings:

Format

Send to:

Choose Destination
Ann Hepatol. 2013 Sep-Oct;12(5):797-802.

Within-patient temporal variance in MELD score and impact on survival prediction after TIPS creation.

Author information

  • 1Department of Radiology, Section of Interventional Radiology.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

To assess within-patient temporal variability in Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores and impact on outcome prognostication after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation.

MATERIAL AND METHODS:

In this single institution retrospective study, MELD score was calculated in 68 patients (M:F = 42:26, mean age 55 years) at 4 pre-procedure time points (1, 2-6, 7-14, and 15-35 days) before TIPS creation. Medical record review was used to identify 30- and 90-day clinical outcomes. Within-patient variability in pre-procedure MELD scores was assessed using repeated measures analysis of variance, and the ability of MELD scores at different time points to predict post-TIPS mortality was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.

RESULTS:

TIPS were successfully created for ascites (n = 30), variceal hemorrhage (n = 29), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 8), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 1). Pre-TIPS MELD scores showed significant (P = 0.032) within-subject variance that approached ± 18.5%. Higher MELD scores demonstrated greater variability in sequential scores as compared to lower MELD scores. Overall 30- and 90-day patient mortality was 22% (15/67) and 38% (24/64). AUROC curves showed that most recent MELD scores performed on the day of TIPS had superior predictive capacity for 30- (0.876, P = 0.037) and 90-day (0.805 P = 0.020) mortality compared to MELD scores performed 2-6 or 7-14 days prior.

CONCLUSIONS:

In conclusion, MELD scores show within-patient variability over time, and scores calculated on the day of TIPS most accurately predict risk and should be used for patient selection and counseling.

PMID:
24018498
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Loading ...
    Write to the Help Desk