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Prev Med. 2013 Oct;57(4):357-62. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.06.010. Epub 2013 Jun 16.

Progressive chronic kidney disease in primary care: modifiable risk factors and predictive model.

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  • 1Department of Medicine, Rotes Kreuz Krankenhaus, 28199 Bremen, Germany; Department of Nephrology, University Hospital, University Duisburg-Essen, 45122 Essen, Germany. Electronic address: herget-rosenthal.s@roteskreuzkrankenhaus.de.



To determine the incidence and prevalence of CKD and of progressive GFR decline, to identify modifiable risk factors of and to develop a predictive risk model for progressive GFR decline in high risk primary care patients.


Retrospective observational study of 803 patients with or at high risk of CKD exclusively managed in primary care. Baseline data was collected in 2003, follow-up data in 2006. High risk was defined as inadequately controlled hypertension or diabetes, and GFR<60, progressive GFR decline as annual GFR decline >2.5mlmin(-1) 1.73m(-2).


CKD was present in 25.4% at baseline and developed in further 13.7% during follow-up, 42.5% demonstrated progressive GFR decline. Obesity, proteinuria, heart failure, inadequate hypertension and diabetes control, lacking angiotensin-converting-enzyme-inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor-blockers, radio contrast, and dual renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system blockade were identified as modifiable, independent risk factors of progressive GFR decline. The risk model, containing 7 readily obtainable variables, showed good discriminative ability.


High risk primary care patients demonstrated high CKD prevalence and incidence, and rate of progressive GFR decline. Identified risk factors can be modified in primary care. Our risk model may aid primary care physicians to predict patients at high risk of progressive GFR decline.

Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.


Chronic kidney disease; Incidence; Prediction; Prevalence; Primary care; Progression; Risk factor

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