Population-based research on the relationship between summer weather and paediatric forearm shaft fractures

Background: Paediatric forearm shaft fractures show an increasing incidence. The predictive factors of these fractures are not fully understood. Summer weather is suggested to have an effect on the risk of children's fractures. We studied the effect of rainfall, temperature and wind on paediatric forearm shaft fractures in summer.

Methods: All 148 children's forearm shaft fractures in the geographic catchment district during the summer months in 1997-2009 were included. There were 1989 days in the study period. Daily meteorological readings captured the maximum daytime temperature, precipitation and wind speed. The direct daily association between fractures (yes/no) and different weather conditions was analysed in this population-based study.

Results: The risk of forearm shaft fracture was 50% higher on dry days compared to rainy days (P=0.038). Temperature and wind speed had no statistically significant effect on fractures.

Conclusions: The results give support for the presumption by the general public and professionals that summer weather affects children's fractures. A 1.5-fold increase in the risk is especially significant as the forearm shaft fractures are challenging to manage and prone to complications. Paediatric trauma units should prepare themselves for these severe injuries on dry summer days.