Background: Patients with active upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) require urgent endoscopy, but appropriate criteria for urgent endoscopy in these patients have not yet been established.
Aims: The goal of this study is to establish a simple system for the selection of UGIB patients who may benefit from urgent endoscopy.
Methods: Of the 335 patients who required emergency hospitalization for UGIB from May 2010 to March 2012 at Nagoya Daini Red Cross Hospital, 166 patients who underwent placement of a nasogastric tube (NGT) were retrospectively identified. Active bleeding on the endoscopic image was used as an endpoint that reflected the need for urgent endoscopy.
Results: The ratio of the heart rate to the systolic blood pressure (HR/SBP ratio) and aspiration of fresh or dark red fluid from the NGT [NGT(+)] were significant predictors of active bleeding in the univariate analysis [HR/SBP ratio, P=0.016; NGT(+), P<0.001]. The HR/SBP ratio [odds ratio (OR) 8.118; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.696-38.850; P=0.009] and NGT(+) (OR 4.630; 95% CI 2.092-10.204; P<0.001) were also significantly associated with active bleeding in the multivariate analysis. Moreover, receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed a setting with HR/SBP ratio>1.4 or NGT(+) to be optimal criteria to predict active bleeding. These criteria were associated with a sensitivity of 64.9% (24/37) and a specificity of 76.7% (99/129) for the prediction of active bleeding; consequently, they are superior to the sensitivity and specificity of previously proposed criteria.
Conclusions: A novel and simple criteria system using NGT(+) and HR/SBP is a good predictor of the need for urgent endoscopy in patients with nonvariceal UGIB.