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J Theor Biol. 2013 Sep 21;333:78-90. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.04.020. Epub 2013 May 11.

Modeling and analysis of the transmission of Echinococcosis with application to Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China.

Author information

  • 1Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shan'xi 030051, People's Republic of China. wangkaimath@sina.com

Abstract

Echinococcosis, which is one of the zoonotic diseases, can threaten human health and hinder the development of animal husbandry seriously. Especially in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China, Echinococcosis is regarded as one of the most serious endemic diseases.The number of human Echinococcosis has increased dramatically in the last 10 years, partially due to poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of Echinococcosis and lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this paper, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of Echinococcosis in Xinjiang. The results show that the dynamics of the model is completely determined by the basic reproductive number R0. If R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When R0>1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Based on the data reported by Xinjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Xinjiang CDC), the numerical simulation result matches Echinococcosis data well. The model provides an approximate estimate of the basic reproduction number R0=1.67. This indicates that Echinococcosis is endemic in Xinjiang with the current control measures. Finally, we perform some sensitivity analysis of several model parameters and give some useful comments on controlling the transmission of Echinococcosis.

Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

KEYWORDS:

Basic reproduction number; Control strategies; Mathematical model; Sensitivity analysis; Transmission dynamics

PMID:
23669505
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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