The US. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Watershed Deposition Tool (WDT) to calculate from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model output the nitrogen, sulfur and mercury deposition rates to watersheds and their sub-basins. The CMAQ model simulates from first principles the transport, transformation, and removal of atmospheric pollutants. We applied WDT to estimate the atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen (N) to Tampa Bay and its watershed. For 2002 and within the boundaries of Tampa Bay's watershed, modeled atmospheric deposition rates averaged 13.3 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) and ranged from 6.24 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) at the bay's boundary with Gulf of Mexico to 21.4 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) near Tampa's urban core, based on a 12-km x 12-km grid cell size. CMAQ-predicted loading rates were 1,080 metric tons N yr(-1) to Tampa Bay and 8,280 metric tons N yr(-1) to the land portion of its watershed. If we assume a watershed-to-bay transfer rate of 18% for indirect loading, our estimates of the 2002 direct and indirect loading rates to Tampa Bay were 1,080 metric tons N and 1,490 metric tons N, respectively, for an atmospheric loading of 2,570 metric tons N or 71% of the total N loading to Tampa Bay. To evaluate the potential impact of the US. EPA Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR, replaced with Cross-State Air Pollution Rule), Tier 2 Vehicle and Gasoline Sulfur Rules, Heavy Duty Highway Rule, and Non-Road Diesel Rule, we compared CMAQ outputs between 2020 and 2002 simulations, with only the emissions inventories changed. The CMAQ-projected change in atmospheric loading rates between these emissions inventories was 857 metric tons N to Tampa Bay, or about 24% of the 2002 loading of 3,640 metric tons N to Tampa Bay from all sources.
Implications: Air quality modeling reveals that atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen (N) contributes a significant fraction to Tampa Bay's total N loading from external sources. Regulatory drivers that lower nitrogen oxide emissions from power plants and motor vehicles are important to bay management strategies, which seek to improve water quality through N load reduction.