**A** Correlation (computed as Pearson correlation coefficient) between epidemiologically relevant quantities and parameters regulating the implemented case isolation strategy. Values equal to zero means that no statistically significant correlation (p-value

) was found. Color scale (from dark blue to light red) reflects the reported correlation values. Parameter space exploration was performed by sampling 500 parameter sets in the following ranges: cumulative number of Marburg hemorrhagic fever deaths before starting case isolation in

, first isolation day in

and daily isolation probability sampled from a uniform distribution

.

**B** Final number of deaths (as percentage of the population) as a function of the first isolation day (in days from symptoms onset) and of the daily isolation probability (in percentage). Colors from blue to red represent a final number of deaths less than 0.05%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30% and 35% of the total population. Simulations assume that the isolation of cases starts when 3 deaths per 100,000 individuals are observed in the population.

**C** Probability distribution (2.5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 97.5% quantiles) of the final number of deaths (in percentage of the population, scale on left axis) as a function of the first isolation day. The green dashed line represents the average peak day incidence of isolated individuals (per 100,000 individuals, scale on the right). Simulations assume that the isolation of cases starts when 3 deaths per 100,000 individuals are observed in the population, and the daily isolation probability is kept fixed to 20%.

**D** Probability distribution (2.5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 97.5% quantiles) of the final number of deaths (in percentage of the population, scale on left axis) as a function of the reduction of potentially infectious contact. The green dashed lines represent the average peak day incidence of isolated individuals (per 100,000 individuals, scale on the right). Simulations assume that the isolation of cases starts when 3 deaths per 100,000 individuals are observed in the population, and the daily isolation probability is kept fixed to 20%; the first isolation day is set to 4 days in the left box and to 5 days in right one. Results reported in this figure are based on 10,000 model realizations.

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