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Am J Prev Med. 2012 May;42(5):437-44. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2012.01.018.

Reaching the healthy people goals for reducing childhood obesity: closing the energy gap.

Author information

  • 1Department of Health Policy and Management, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York 10032, USA. ycw2102@columbia.edu

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

The federal government has set measurable goals for reducing childhood obesity to 5% by 2010 (Healthy People 2010), and 10% lower than 2005-2008 levels by 2020 (Healthy People 2020). However, population-level estimates of the changes in daily energy balance needed to reach these goals are lacking.

PURPOSE:

To estimate needed per capita reductions in youths' daily "energy gap" (calories consumed over calories expended) to achieve Healthy People goals by 2020.

METHODS:

Analyses were conducted in 2010 to fit multivariate models using National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1971-2008 (N=46,164) to extrapolate past trends in obesity prevalence, weight, and BMI among youth aged 2-19 years. Differences in average daily energy requirements between the extrapolated 2020 levels and Healthy People scenarios were estimated.

RESULTS:

During 1971-2008, mean BMI and weight among U.S. youth increased by 0.55 kg/m(2) and by 1.54 kg per decade, respectively. Extrapolating from these trends to 2020, the average weight among youth in 2020 would increase by ∼1.8 kg from 2007-2008 levels. Averting this increase will require an average reduction of 41 kcal/day in youth's daily energy gap. An additional reduction of 120 kcal/day and 23 kcal/day would be needed to reach Healthy People 2010 and Healthy People 2020 goals, respectively. Larger reductions are needed among adolescents and racial/ethnic minority youth.

CONCLUSIONS:

Aggressive efforts are needed to reverse the positive energy imbalance underlying the childhood obesity epidemic. The energy-gap metric provides a useful tool for goal setting, intervention planning, and charting progress.

Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PMID:
22516482
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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