a, Phylogeny of the great ape family, showing the speciation of human (H), chimpanzee (C), gorilla (G) and orangutan (O). Horizontal lines indicate speciation times within the hominine subfamily and the sequence divergence time between human and orangutan. Interior grey lines illustrate an example of incomplete lineage sorting at a particular genetic locus – in this case (((C, G), H), O) rather than (((H, C), G), O). Below are mean nucleotide divergences between human and the other great apes from the EPO alignment. b, Great ape speciation and divergence times. Upper panel: solid lines show how times for the HC and HCG speciation events estimated by CoalHMM vary with average mutation rate; dashed lines show the corresponding average sequence divergence times, as well as the HO sequence divergence. Blue blocks represent hominid fossil species: each has a vertical extent spanning the range of dates estimated for it in the literature13,50, and a horizontal position at the maximum mutation rate consistent both with its proposed phylogenetic position and the CoalHMM estimates (including some allowance for ancestral polymorphism in the case of Sivapithecus). The grey shaded region shows that an increase in mutation rate going back in time can accommodate present-day estimates, fossil hypotheses, and a mid-Miocene speciation for orangutan. Lower panel: estimates of the average mutation rate in present-day humans10-12; grey bars show 95% confidence intervals, with black lines at the means.