Background and purpose: The cost-effectiveness of dabigatran for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation and prior stroke or transient ischemic attack has not been directly assessed.
Methods: A Markov decision model was constructed using data from the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Therapy (RE-LY) trial, other trials of warfarin therapy for atrial fibrillation, and the published cost of dabigatran. We compared the cost and quality-adjusted life expectancy associated with 150 mg dabigatran twice daily versus warfarin therapy targeted to an international normalized ratio of 2 to 3. The target population was a cohort of patients aged ≥70 years with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack, and no contraindication to anticoagulation.
Results: In the base case, dabigatran was associated with 4.27 quality-adjusted life-years compared with 3.91 quality-adjusted life-years with warfarin. Dabigatran provided 0.36 additional quality-adjusted life-years at a cost of $9000, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $25,000. In sensitivity analyses, the cost-effectiveness of dabigatran was inversely related to the quality of international normalized ratio control achieved with warfarin therapy. In Monte Carlo analysis, dabigatran was cost-effective in 57% of simulations using a threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year and 78% of simulations using a threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year.
Conclusions: Dabigatran appears to be cost-effective relative to warfarin for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation and prior stroke or transient ischemic attack. Our analysis is limited by its reliance on data from a substudy of a single randomized trial, and our results may not apply in settings with uncommonly good international normalized ratio control using warfarin.