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J Infect Dis. 2011 Jul;204 Suppl 1:S98-106. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jir096.

Global eradication of measles: an epidemiologic and economic evaluation.

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  • 1MathEcology, Phoenix, Arizona, USA.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Measles remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality in children in developing countries. Due to the success of the measles mortality reduction and elimination efforts thus far, the WHO has raised the question of whether global eradication of measles is economically feasible.

METHODS:

The cost-effectiveness of various measles mortality reduction and eradication scenarios was evaluated vis-à-vis the current mortality reduction goal in six countries and globally. Data collection on costs of measles vaccination were conducted in six countries in four regions: Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, Tajikistan, and Uganda. The number of measles cases and deaths were projected from 2010 to 2050 using a dynamic, age-structured compartmental model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were then calculated for each scenario vis a vis the baseline.

RESULTS:

Measles eradication by 2020 was the found to be the most cost-effective scenario, both in the six countries and globally. Eradicating measles by 2020 is projected to cost an additional discounted $7.8 billion and avert a discounted 346 million DALYs between 2010 and 2050.

CONCLUSIONS:

In conclusion, the study found that, compared to the baseline, reaching measles eradication by 2020 would be the most cost-effective measles mortality reduction scenario, both for the six countries and on a global basis.

© The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.

PMID:
21666220
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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