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Am J Public Health. 2011 Jul;101(7):1236-40. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2011.300179. Epub 2011 May 12.

Modeling the future effects of a menthol ban on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the United States.

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  • 1Department of Economics, University of Baltimore, Baltimore, MD, USA.


We used a validated smoking simulation model and data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey to project the impact that a US menthol ban would have on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. In a scenario in which 30% of menthol smokers quit and 30% of those who would have initiated as menthol smokers do not initiate, by 2050 the relative reduction in smoking prevalence would be 9.7% overall and 24.8% for Blacks; deaths averted would be 633,252 overall and 237,317 for Blacks.

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