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Nicotine Tob Res. 2011 Mar;13(3):215-20. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntq227. Epub 2011 Jan 13.

Predictors of early versus late smoking abstinence within a 24-month disease management program.

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  • 1Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, University of Kansas School of Medicine, Kansas City, KS 66160, USA.



Standard smoking cessation treatment studies have been limited to 6- to 12-month follow-up, and examination of predictors of abstinence has been restricted to this timeframe. The KanQuit study enrolled 750 rural smokers across all stages of readiness to stop smoking and provided pharmacotherapy management and/or disease management, including motivational interviewing (MI) counseling every 6 months over 2 years. This paper examines differences in predictors of abstinence following initial (6-month) and extended (24-month) intervention.


Baseline variables were analyzed as potential predictors of self-reported smoking abstinence at Month 6 and at Month 24. Chi-square tests, 2-sample t tests, and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of abstinence among 592 participants who completed assessment at baseline and Months 6 and 24.


Controlling for treatment group, the final regression models showed that male gender and lower baseline cigarettes per day predicted abstinence at both 6 and 24 months. While remaining significant, the relative advantage of being male decreased over time. Global motivation to stop smoking, controlled motivation, and self-efficacy predicted abstinence at 6 months but did not predict abstinence at Month 24. In contrast, stage of change was strongly predictive of 24-month smoking status.


While the importance of some predictors of successful smoking cessation appeared to diminish over time, initial lack of interest in cessation and number of cigarettes per day strongly predicted continued smoking following a 2-year program.

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