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Ann Intern Med. 2010 Dec 21;153(12):778-89. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-153-12-201012210-00004.

The cost-effectiveness and population outcomes of expanded HIV screening and antiretroviral treatment in the United States.

Author information

  • 1Yale School of Management, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA. elisa.long@yale.edu

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Although recent guidelines call for expanded routine screening for HIV, resources for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited, and all eligible persons are not currently receiving treatment.

OBJECTIVE:

To evaluate the effects on the U.S. HIV epidemic of expanded ART, HIV screening, or interventions to reduce risk behavior.

DESIGN:

Dynamic mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression and cost-effectiveness analysis.

DATA SOURCES:

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION:

High-risk (injection drug users and men who have sex with men) and low-risk persons aged 15 to 64 years in the United States.

TIME HORIZON:

Twenty years and lifetime (costs and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]).

PERSPECTIVE:

Societal.

INTERVENTION:

Expanded HIV screening and counseling, treatment with ART, or both.

OUTCOME MEASURES:

New HIV infections, discounted costs and QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS:

One-time HIV screening of low-risk persons coupled with annual screening of high-risk persons could prevent 6.7% of a projected 1.23 million new infections and cost $22,382 per QALY gained, assuming a 20% reduction in sexual activity after screening. Expanding ART utilization to 75% of eligible persons prevents 10.3% of infections and costs $20,300 per QALY gained. A combination strategy prevents 17.3% of infections and costs $21,580 per QALY gained.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:

With no reduction in sexual activity, expanded screening prevents 3.7% of infections. Earlier ART initiation when a CD4 count is greater than 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L prevents 20% to 28% of infections. Additional efforts to halve high-risk behavior could reduce infections by 65%.

LIMITATION:

The model of disease progression and treatment was simplified, and acute HIV screening was excluded.

CONCLUSION:

Expanding HIV screening and treatment simultaneously offers the greatest health benefit and is cost-effective. However, even substantial expansion of HIV screening and treatment programs is not sufficient to markedly reduce the U.S. HIV epidemic without substantial reductions in risk behavior.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE:

National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

Comment in

PMID:
21173412
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PMCID:
PMC3173812
Free PMC Article
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