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Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2011 Jan;91(1):121-6. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2010.10.011. Epub 2010 Nov 11.

Use of the UKPDS Outcomes Model to predict all-cause mortality in U.S. adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus: comparison of predicted versus observed mortality.

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  • 1Heart Disease Prevention Program, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.

Abstract

AIMS:

The applicability of the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model is unknown in populations with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) outside the United Kingdom. We compared all-cause mortality predicted from the UKPDS model with observed mortality among T2DM subjects in the U.S.

METHODS:

we studied participants with T2DM from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1988-1994 with characteristics comparable to the UKPDS cohort. The 10-year observed all-cause mortality was compared to the UKPDS model-predicted mortality. The Lifetable method was used to estimate the probability of mortality for 10 years following diagnosis.

RESULTS:

among 156 subjects with characteristics comparable to the UKPDS cohort, mean age was 49.6 years, age at T2DM diagnosis was 47.1 years, and T2DM duration averaged 2.6 years, with follow-up for 10.4 years. The UKPDS model-predicted 10-year mortality was 15.7%, similar to the observed mortality of 14.2%. Corresponding 10-year predicted versus observed mortality was 32.7% versus 32.4% including subjects >age 65, 17.0% versus 19.3% including individuals with pre-existing CVD, and 31.1% versus 20.9% including individuals with diabetes duration ≥ 6 years.

CONCLUSION:

all-cause mortality predicted by the UKPDS model was comparable to observed mortality in U.S. NHANES participants with characteristics similar to the UKPDS.

2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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