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Science. 2010 Dec 10;330(6010):1496-501. doi: 10.1126/science.1196624. Epub 2010 Oct 26.

Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century.

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  • 1Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal. hpereira@fc.ul.pt

Abstract

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

PMID:
20978282
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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