Neurodegeneration precedes the onset of dementias such as Alzheimer's by several years. Recent advances in volumetric imaging allow quantification of subtle neuroanatomical change over time periods as short as six months. This study investigates whether neuroanatomical change in medial temporal lobe subregions is associated with later memory decline in elderly controls. Using high-resolution, T1-weighted magnetic resonance images acquired at baseline and six-month follow-up, change in cortical thickness and subcortical volumes was measured in 142 healthy elderly subjects (aged 59-90 years) from the ADNI cohort. Regression analysis was used to identify whether change in fourteen subregions, selected a priori, was associated with declining performance on memory tests from baseline to two-year follow-up. Percent thickness change in the right fusiform and inferior temporal cortices and expansion of the right inferior lateral ventricle were found to be significant predictors of subsequent decline on memory-specific neuropsychological measures. These results demonstrate that six-month regional neurodegeneration can be quantified in the healthy elderly and might help identify those at risk for subsequent cognitive decline.

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