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Br J Surg. 2010 Jan;97(1):128-33. doi: 10.1002/bjs.6808.

Risk modelling of outcome after general and trauma surgery (the IRIS score).

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  • 1Department of Surgery, Zaans Medical Centre, Zaandam, The Netherlands.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

A practical, easy to use model was developed to stratify risk groups in surgical patients: the Identification of Risk In Surgical patients (IRIS) score.

METHODS:

Over 15 years an extensive database was constructed in a general surgery unit, containing all patients who underwent general or trauma surgery. A logistic regression model was developed to predict mortality. This model was simplified to the IRIS score to enhance practicality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed.

RESULTS:

The database contained a consecutive series of 33 224 patients undergoing surgery. Logistic regression analysis gave the following formula for the probability of mortality: P (mortality) = A/(1 + A), where A = exp (-4.58 + (0.26 x acute admission) + (0.63 x acute operation) + (0.044 x age) + (0.34 x severity of surgery)). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.92. The IRIS score also included age (divided into quartiles, 0-3 points), acute admission, acute operation and grade of surgery. The AUC predicting postoperative mortality was 0.90.

CONCLUSION:

The IRIS score accurately predicted mortality after general or trauma surgery.

Copyright 2010 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

PMID:
20013931
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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