(
a) STAT5 signalling pathway. Adapted from (Arbouzova and Zeidler, 2006). (
b) Histograms show populations of the model parameter
m. Population 20 represents the approximation of the marginal posterior distribution of
m. Tolerance schedule: ϵ={200, 100, 50, 35, 30, 25, 22, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8}. Perturbation kernels:
KMt(
m|
m*)=0.6 if
m=
m* and 0.2 otherwise;
KPt(θ|θ
*)=
U(−σ, σ), σ=0.5 (max{θ}
t−1−min{θ}
t−1).
N=500. Distance function:

, with
D0={
y0(1),
y0(2)},
D*={
y*(1),
y*(2)} and
y(1) the total amount of phosphoryalated STAT5 in the cytoplasm and
y(2) the total amount of STAT5 in the cytoplasm. σ
D0(1) and σ
D0(2) are the associated confidence intervals; reassuringly, other distance functions, e.g. the square root of the sum of squared errors yield identical model selection results (data not shown).