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J Infect Dis. 2009 Nov 1;200 Suppl 1:S49-56. doi: 10.1086/605036.

Projected Impact of the new rotavirus vaccination program on hospitalizations for gastroenteritis and rotavirus disease among US children <5 years of age during 2006-2015.

Author information

  • 1National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA. agc8@cdc.gov

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Rotavirus causes approximately one-third to one-half (55,000-70,000 hospitalizations per year) of hospitalizations for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) among US children <5 years of age. We forecasted the potential reduction in the number of hospitalizations for rotavirus disease and AGE in US children during 2006-2015 as a result of the new rotavirus vaccine introduced in 2006.

METHODS:

The mean number of hospitalizations for AGE by calendar month among US children was determined using the National Hospital Discharge Survey from the period 1993-2005. From these baseline prevaccine estimates, we forecasted the effect of vaccine in reducing the number of hospitalizations for rotavirus disease and AGE during 2006-2015 with use of estimates of vaccine effectiveness and uptake.

RESULTS:

During 2006-2015, approximately 313,000 (45%) of an estimated 703,190 hospitalizations for rotavirus disease would be directly prevented by vaccination. A significant reduction in the number of hospitalizations for AGE should be detectable among infants aged 0-11 months during the first quarter of 2009, followed by children aged 12-23 months during 2010, and all children <5 years of age during 2011.

CONCLUSIONS:

Vaccination is expected to substantially reduce the health burden of hospitalizations for rotavirus disease among US children during 2006-2015, and the impact of vaccination based on direct protective effects alone was expected to first occur for hospitalizations for AGE among infants during winter 2009.

PMID:
19817614
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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