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    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Nov 17;106 Suppl 2:19685-92. Epub 2009 Sep 23.

    Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions.

    Source

    Department of Botany and Program in Ecology and Wyoming Water Resources Data System and Wyoming State Climate Office, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA. jackson@uwyo.edu

    Abstract

    Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

    PMID:
    19805104
    [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
    PMCID:
    PMC2780932
    Free PMC Article

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